Why Trump Secured a Major Step in the Middle East But Faces Challenges With Putin Over Ukraine
Accounts of an impending US-Russia leadership meeting have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Only a few days after Donald Trump said he planned to meet Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.
A initial get-together by the both countries' top diplomats has been called off, as well.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump informed reporters at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I will observe what transpires."
- Donald Trump says he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin postponed
- Letdown in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky departs White House without results
The on-again, off-again meeting is another development in Trump's attempts to mediate an end to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a topic of increased attention for the American leader after he orchestrated a truce and hostage release deal in the Palestinian territory.
While making remarks in the North African country recently to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, Trump turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.
"It is essential to get Russia done," he said.
However, the circumstances that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for the negotiation team may be difficult to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for nearing several years.
Less Leverage
Per the lead negotiator, the key to unlocking a deal was the Israeli government's decision to strike Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a action that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but gave Trump leverage to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.
The US president benefited from a long record of supporting Israel since his initial presidency, encompassing his decision to move the American embassy to the contested city, to alter US policy on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his support for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.
The American leader, actually, is more popular among Israelis than Netanyahu – a position that gave him unique influence over the nation's head.
Add in the president's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the region, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to force an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, Trump has significantly reduced influence. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between efforts to pressure the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.
Trump has threatened to impose new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to provide Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could disrupt the global economy and further escalate the conflict.
Meanwhile, the US leader has publicly berated Zelensky, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with the country and suspending weapon deliveries to the nation - only to then retreat in the wake of worried European partners who warn a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the whole area.
Trump loves to tout his skill to sit down and hammer out deals, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to advance the hostilities any nearer a resolution.
The Russian president may in fact be using the US leader's wish for a deal – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a means of influencing him.
During the summer, Putin agreed to a summit in the US state at the time when it seemed probable that the president would approve on legislative penalties supported by GOP senators. That bill was afterwards delayed.
Last week, as reports spread that the White House was considering seriously sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the Russian leader phoned the US president who then promoted the possible summit in Budapest.
The following day, the president welcomed Zelensky at the executive residence, but left without agreements after a allegedly tense meeting.
Trump maintained that he was not being played by Putin.
"As you are aware, I have been manipulated throughout my career by skilled operators, and I emerged successfully," he remarked.
However the Ukrainian leader later commented on the timeline of developments.
"Once the matter of long-range mobility became a little further away for Ukraine – for Ukraine – Russia almost automatically became less engaged in diplomacy," he said.
Thus, in a short period, Trump has bounced from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to Ukraine to planning a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and confidentially urging Zelensky to cede all of Donbas – including territory Russian forces has been failed to capture.
He has ultimately settled on advocating a truce along current battle lines – a proposal the Russian government has rejected.
On the campaign trail last year, Trump vowed that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has since discarded that pledge, admitting that concluding the hostilities is proving more difficult than he anticipated.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his authority – and the challenge of finding a peace plan when neither side wants, or can afford to, cease hostilities.