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Elections are now in progress for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, though analysts suggest the party is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and established a multi-party all-conservative government that lasted barely a year, is currently marginally ahead in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-member house of representatives.

However, the far-right party's support has declined since 2023, when it won 37 seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out forming a government with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in the summer over disagreements concerning his radical immigration plans.

Major Parties and Forecasts

Following a campaign dominated by issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, projected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to more than double its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with several facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

Under the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – which include parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This significant fragmentation means that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from power. However, critics and analysts say that first place does not assure a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is uncertain and government negotiations may require several months, political observers indicate that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is expected shortly after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will explore possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.